Author: Christopher S Penn

  • Optimization demands exploration

    Optimize, optimize, optimize. The creed of the day. Search engine optimization. Email marketing optimization. Social media optimization. With all this optimization, you’d think that organizations would be sales and marketing machines, banging out the profits faster than ever.

    Strangely, most of the folks promoting their optimization services barely have two nickels to rub together. The companies who are unlucky enough to hire these folks end up out a lot of money and become bitter, disenchanted with the idea of optimizing anything.

    Why does most optimization fail so hard?

    The final rush hourThink about it this way. Let’s say you want to do the most basic optimization possible – you want to optimize your commute home. You want to shave a minute or a mile off that daily drive, that way you’ve always done it.

    Now let’s say that you only know the way you’ve already been going for the last day/week/month/year/life. How successful will your optimization be?

    Exactly. You will achieve nothing, no significant gains at all.

    So how would you optimize that commute? Before you can find the best route home, you have to know more than one route. Explore. Learn. Listen. Drive on all the back roads and side roads in and around your commute. Talk  to other people who drive that route or who live in the area, gas station attendants, waiters and waitresses. Learn everything there is to learn about all of the ways between your house and your office, and then test them. One day you take a southern road. One day you take the light before your usual light. Run all the variations that you practically run, learn, explore, and get to know all the places between home and the office.

    The time it takes you to learn and explore is absolutely vital. There’s no substitute for that research. There’s no pre-drawn road map that will tell you in perfect, precise details how to get from your house to your office in exactly the right way. There’s no mentor you can seek who will tell you exactly how to get to your house from your office – though there are plenty of fellow travelers who can share tips about how they get home. In the end, only exploring and learning all the routes available will let you “optimize” and choose the best way home.

    Now expand this analogy to everything you’re trying to do in your business. How much time, energy, and resources are you putting into research and exploration? How many questions are you asking each week, the equivalent of taking a different turn, knowing that a huge number of ideas will be dead ends? How often do you listen carefully to customers, prospects, and other fellow travelers to hear what they’re finding in their own exploration?

    Most important: how much are you spending on “optimization” that’s ultimately going to be fruitless because you don’t know any different ways or worse, because your corporate culture is mired in “that’s the way we’ve always done it”?

    Explore first. Optimize only after you’ve learned new ways to get home, or you’ll only repeat the mistakes of the past.


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  • The light you see

    The light you see

    The sun's coming up in the morning

    Photography’s an interesting art form. At its core, it’s entirely about light. How much light reflected from the world around us dictates what our picture looks like. As a photographer, you have nearly total control over how much light you choose to see, what quality the light is, and what you choose to see with that light. In total darkness, photography is phenomenally uninteresting – but rarely are you ever photographing in total darkness, unless you leave the lens cap on. Even on the darkest of nights, there’s enough ambient light to take a photo.

    Don’t believe it? If you have a camera that can hold open the shutter (like a DSLR) and a rock solid tripod, set it up facing out a window one night and press the shutter. It may be a minute or two before you hear the shutter close, but when you look at the result, you’ll see quite a bit. As long as the camera is undisturbed, you’ll have a photo that looks shockingly like the daytime, even when your own eyes struggle to see.

    This makes for an interesting metaphor for your life, doesn’t it? It’s not that there isn’t enough light in your life so much as it is your eyes, heart, and spirit might not be open wide enough to pick it up. A camera set up to patiently wait in the middle of the darkest night can see as if it were day.

    If there’s not enough light in your life, plunk yourself down like the camera on a tripod, stop the chaos around you, take a whole bunch of deep breaths, and open up your eyes. Don’t think – just wait, watch, breathe, and see if your mental and emotional lens can find the light that’s already there.

    The light is there, waiting for you.


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  • Music to power your workday

    I listen to a ton of music during the workday to help me power through stuff, especially when I need an extra boost of energy, creativity, or motivation. Since a number of people have asked, here are some of the albums I recommend. Most are either in foreign languages or lyric-free, because the language processing side of your brain is a serial processor. This means it can handle one language stream well, but can’t multiprocess well – so a song with lyrics that you understand is likely to slow you down and reduce your productivity, rather than boost it, if you’re doing anything else involving words (like email). As an added bonus, music without lyrics is guaranteed not to offend anyone in your workplace.

    All of the albums are affiliate links that pay me a commission via Amazon.com. (come on, did you expect any less?) Most of the albums are in MP3 format for any player including iTunes/iPod and anything that will support an MP3. Some are physical CDs.

    See a larger version here.


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  • There is no secret sauce

    There is no secret sauce

    Garden fresh tomatoesIf there’s one expression I’ve heard over the years that demonstrates an executive’s lack of understanding about how business works, it’s the idea of secret sauce, the concept that your company has some secret methodology or recipe that makes you incredibly successful and powerful. Everyone’s questing for this sauce. What’s the right mix? What are the ingredients? The truly paranoid obsess over the theoretical secret sauce of other companies.

    There is no secret sauce.

    None. The recipe for Coca Cola was derived using gas chromatography decades ago. The Colonel’s 11 herbs and spices have largely proven to be a myth, again thanks to food laboratories. Go read William Poundstone’s Big Secrets if you want the actual recipes.

    Your business doesn’t have a secret sauce, either. Unless you’ve got a product that absolutely no one else has, your “secret sauce” is probably in use in some form or fashion at every one of your competitors. The only exception to this might be if you’re deeply incompetent, in which case there are probably ingredients in your sauce that no one wants.

    In the grand scheme of things, how much does the secret sauce matter? Let’s take it literally:

    • If your restaurant is open for business only on Tuesday nights from 1 AM to 2 AM, your secret sauce won’t save you.
    • If your servers are surly and abusive to your patrons, your secret sauce won’t save you.
    • If the food that the sauce is placed on is substandard or infected, your secret sauce won’t save you.
    • If your financial management makes the entire restaurant a failed investment, your secret sauce won’t save you.

    The secret sauce matters much less than having staff that can serve patrons well, having the restaurant open when people want to eat, having a chef that can cook competently, having prices that patrons are willing to pay, and having a product of good quality.

    The reality is that if you or your management team are obsessing over a secret sauce, you’re basically asking for a magic wand to fix problems in your business that you’re in denial about. If you’re obsessed over your sauce and someone else’s sauce, you’re probably going out of business soon.

    Stop obsessing over secret sauces and start making sure your business is performing the basics well. You’ll sleep better at night, your business will run better, and who knows? With all that stress relieved, you might feel creative enough in the kitchen to one day invent a new, secret sauce.


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  • 10 free iPad Wallpapers

    10 free iPad Wallpapers

    Got one of the two million new iPads out in the wild? Grab yourself one (or all) of these free wallpapers derived from photos I’ve taken over the years. iPad wallpapers are 1024×1024 pixels (square to adapt for rotation). Click on any image to get the various versions and choose full size for the iPad specific image. If you’re on an iPad, just tap and hold for a Save Image box.

    Enjoy, and if you like them, please throw a link back to this blog post.

    iPad Wallpaper: Autumn

    iPad Wallpaper: Autumn

    iPad Wallpaper: Billiards

    iPad Wallpaper: Billiards

    iPad Wallpaper: Bird in flight

    iPad Wallpaper: Bird in flight

    iPad Wallpaper: Patriotism

    iPad Wallpaper: Patriotism

    iPad Wallpaper: Violins

    iPad Wallpaper: Violins

    iPad Wallpaper: Hibiscus

    iPad Wallpaper: Hibiscus

    iPad Wallpaper: Chris Brogan

    iPad Wallpaper: Chris Brogan

    iPad Wallpaper: Day lily

    iPad Wallpaper: Day lily

    iPad Wallpaper: Rose

    iPad Wallpaper: Rose

    iPad Wallpaper: Otters

    iPad Wallpaper: Otters

    My images are released under the Creative Commons By Attribution, Non-Commercial, Sharealike License, US 3.0. You must provide a link back to www.ChristopherSPenn.com if you republish these images.


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  • On Memorial Day

    Bounty of springtime

    “We are all the sum of our tears. Too little and the ground is not fertile, nothing can grow there; too much, and the best of us is washed away.”

    “There is a greater darkness than the one we fight. It is the darkness of the soul that has lost its way. The war we fight is not against powers and principalities; it is against chaos and despair. Greater than the death of flesh is the death of hope, the death of dreams. Against this peril we can never surrender. The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.”

    – J. Michael Straczynski

    May your Memorial Day be filled with the hope that so many have fought and died for.


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  • No such thing as a free lunch

    BLTNo such thing as a free lunch

    How much did you pay last year for Facebook? For Gmail? For Foursquare? For Twitter?

    Right.

    Nothing.

    How much value did you derive from these services?

    If you don’t know or can’t tell, the easiest way is to ask yourself how much you would have to spend out of pocket to recreate them. Take something like Gmail, as an example. You’d need a computer with an Internet connection, the Linux operating system, the Postfix mail server, the Apache web server, knowledge of how to securely configure all these pieces, and the web interface.

    You’d need to administer this server, applying software updates and security patches on a frequent basis. It’s not an impossible task – I did it for years as an IT administrator – but it is not a simple thing to do, and it is not an inexpensive thing to do.

    How much would it cost you to develop your own Facebook, where you could set your own privacy terms, run the service exactly the way you wanted it to, be everything that you wanted it to be?

    Services like Twitter, Facebook, and Gmail are not free. They have never been free. Up until now, the costs to you have merely been deferred. They have real costs that are traded in exchange for something of value from you. In this day and age, that’s personal and behavioral data. Your goodwill? Your word of mouth? Both combined with $5 will get you a cup of coffee from the local commercial coffee chain. What’s for sale is you, the consumer, to advertisers and partners.

    If you don’t like how these businesses – and they are businesses, seeking to make profits – treat you, don’t use them. Don’t sign up for them. Don’t give them your time, data, or mindshare. Build your own or use businesses that are more aligned with your values – and be prepared to pay cash out of pocket for them.

    There is no such thing as a free lunch.


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  • Know when to skimp and when to splurge

    Know when to skimp and when to splurge

    Have you ever noticed that people skimp on the strangest things?

    For example, I moved into a new office complex at Blue Sky Factory and the new place had neither a coffeemaker nor a filtered water system. However, the new place has plenty of other expensive amenities like a giant office printer.

    I’ve noticed this when people purchase electronics. They’ll spend thousands on a new laptop and then skimp on memory or drive space, two items that will make a giant difference in their experience with the laptop. They’ll commit to buying an iPhone or an Android and then will get the smallest, lowest cost amount of memory possible.

    Photos from Washington DCI’ve noticed this at hotels, especially. Hotels will have 300 thread count sheets on the bed but will have sandpaper in the bathroom, making your stay there a literal pain in the ass.

    Why do we skimp on some items and splurge on others?

    I suspect it’s largely what gets our attention and what mindset we’re in when we’re making purchases. Toilet paper and coffee seem like commodities to us, while laptops and sheets may not be, at least not mentally. The more we buy of something, the less we may be inclined to pay attention to the quality of what we’re buying. The more mundane and unsexy something is – like toilet paper or laptop memory – the less we are inclined to pay attention to it.

    The paradox is that some of these commodities make a bigger difference in the richness of our experiences than the highly focused items. I’d gladly take last year’s laptop stuffed full of memory and disk space over the latest and greatest machine that’s starved for operating resources. I’d gladly trade down a model of office printer for a coffeemaker or water filter on site – and I’d bet a company would generate far more productivity via the coffee machine than the copy machine. I’m more likely to stay at a hotel where the quality of experience is more even – nicer toilet paper, slightly rougher sheets (I can’t tell the difference between 200 thread count and 300 thread count, honestly) – rather than luxury sheets and a roughed up bottom.

    Want to make a difference in your own life? Look at the nearly unconscious choices you make while spending and evaluate whether or not a slight upgrade could have a major but quiet impact on your quality of life. Some things won’t matter – generic , white label sugar at the grocery store is no different than Brand Name sugar. Some things will matter a great deal – a slightly better kind of coffee may taste MUCH better to you.

    Here’s a relatively simple rule of thumb: the more you use it, the more you should invest in quality. If you’re buying a stereo, for example, and you plan to use it once a year, it probably won’t matter what you buy. If you plan to use it every day for 8 hours a day, buy a very nice stereo because crappy sound will make you feel worse rather than better. If you drink coffee once in a blue moon, buy any quality of coffee and coffeemaker. If you drink coffee several times daily, buy decent coffee and a good quality machine.

    Look for opportunities to trade expenses as well. For example, at this office space, the employees (lacking access to a filtered water system) bring tons of bottled water and buy Starbucks every day. Rather than chew up money doing that, it makes much more sense to get a countertop pitcher that will filter water to a better quality than even bottled can deliver (you do know that 30% or more of bottled water is someone else’s municipal tap water, yes?) and brew your own higher quality coffee rather than drop $5 a cup to the coffee shop. No one loses out except the bottled water company and the corporate coffee shop.

    Are you skimping and splurging in the right places for maximum quality of life on the same fixed budget?


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  • Mandatory viewing: Sir Ken Robinson at TED 2010

    Mandatory viewing, especially if you’re thinking at all about education and how badly we’re failing the generations of students now in school. Read more at TED.com.


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  • Bringing back the morning numbers tweet

    Bringing back the morning numbers tweet

    A long time ago (by Internet standards, anyway) I used to tweet out a bunch of financial indicators, in the days when I did a financial podcast. After making the move to Blue Sky Factory and the the world of email marketing, I lost touch with some of the day to day market numbers, and I’m finding that my ability to understand the world – especially the news headlines – is diminished.

    So I’m bringing back the financial morning tweet, for my own benefit if not for everyone else’s. Every morning that I do #the5 (see this post for what #the5 is all about), I’ll do the numbers as well.

    Now, if you’re not at all interested in financial data, this sort of tweet will be uninteresting. Just skip it.

    Here’s what it will look like:

    DJIA -81 SPX -11 VIX 40 TED 35.7 LIBOR91 51 OIS 22 MSCI 1074 BDI 3844 30yr 4.87 BCF 71.24 GLD 1183.40 RR 12.25 #econ

    If you’re interested in financial data but have no idea what any of this means, let’s take a cruise through it.

    DJIA: The Dow Jones Industrial Average. While it’s not the be-all/end-all of the state of our economy, the Dow is the most popular and well known indicator in the press and media, so it’s included for its psychological impact. Measured in dollars, and in the mornings, it’ll be listed as the futures, or what investors are predicting will happen the moment the markets open up.

    SPX: The Standard & Poor 500. One of the better measures of the overall economy, the S&P 500 includes the stock prices of 500 companies from around the business nation. Measured in dollars, and in the mornings, it’ll be listed as the futures, or what investors are predicting will happen the moment the markets open up.

    VIX: The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. One measure of seeing how confident investors are. When the VIX is low (under 20), there’s not much volatility in the market. When the VIX is high (over 30), it means there’s a lot of volatility and not a lot of confidence. Measured in basis points; 100bp = 1%.

    TED: The TED spread. This is the difference between 3 month Treasury bill rates and the 3 month LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate). The TED spread indicates credit risk in the economy – when the spread is wide (more than 50), it means that the banking system is in trouble. Measured in basis points; 100bp = 1%.

    LIBOR91: 91 day, or 3 month London Inter-Bank Offered Rate. LIBOR indicates the cost for banks to borrow from each other. LIBOR indicates how expensive money is to borrow, and higher LIBOR rates will correspond to higher borrowing rates for businesses and consumers. Measured in basis points; 100bp = 1%.

    OIS31: 31 day or 1 month Overnight Indexed Swap rate. OIS measures how much liquidity – cash – is in the financial system. Higher OIS means less cash is in the system, while low OIS means lots of easy money is floating around. Measured in basis points; 100bp = 1%.

    MSCI: The Morgan Stanley Capital International. The MSCI is an index of 1,500 world stocks from developed nations, giving a broad overview of the world’s corporate performance. As MSCI goes up, so do the world’s economies. Measured in dollars.

    BDI: The Baltic Dry Index. BDI measure the cost of shipping bulk dry cargoes. This is important because unlike speculative investments, BDI measures the price of actual goods in transit. You don’t buy space on a cargo ship unless you have something you’re selling and shipping. Higher BDI indicates more demand for shipping and means the economy is growing. Measured in dollars.

    30yr: The 30 year fixed mortgage rate as published by Bloomberg. The most standard kind of mortgage, mortgage rates go up when the cost of borrowing money goes up and vice versa. Measured in percentage points.

    BCF: Brent Crude Futures, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil. BCF tells you how expensive oil is on the market. Oil fuels your car, heats your house, and indirectly impacts consumer goods (since most everything is made of some plastic), as well as food prices – most fertilizer in agriculture is derived from oil. Interestingly enough, if you divide the BCF number by 25, you get roughly the price at the pump in a few weeks. Not a hard and fast rule, but a useful forward-looking indicator. Life gets more expensive when oil prices go up – but pollution and consumption goes down. Measured in dollars.

    GLD: The price of a troy ounce of gold. Gold is one of the world’s benchmarks for inflation. As a currency inflates or as an economy deteriorates, people buy gold as a hedge, a way to protect themselves from loss. Gold itself isn’t really useful – it’s just a lump of metal – but it doesn’t lose physical mass sitting in a vault in the same way that a stock can lose value rapidly on speculation. Measured in dollars.

    RR: Rough Rice. This is the world price of a bushel of rough rice, or rice just harvested from the fields. 20% of the nutrition of all humanity comes from rice, so when the price of rice goes up, it’s effectively a tax on the world. If the price of rough rice goes really high (above 15) you will see headlines in the world news about food shortages and hunger with greater frequency. Measured in dollars.

    What does it all mean?

    Individually, each indicator tells you something about how the world is doing financially. Some indicators tell you about banks and governments. Others tell you about commodities, raw materials, or corporations. Put together, they’re a very diverse view of the world economy and can even predict the future a little bit.

    For me, I look at them to see how the world is doing. What’s in the headlines very often has financial underpinnings. If you know from these indicators what’s happening financially today, you’ll know what the news will be in a few days or weeks ahead.

    If the price of oil skyrockets, you’ll see changes in the news and daily life. Seeing BCF spike now will tell you that those changes will be coming in 4-6 weeks as that barrel of oil eventually works its way into finished goods that consumers use.

    Seeing the price of rough rice spike today and stay consistently high for a month will tell you that poor countries who are dependent on rice as a nutritional staple will be headed for famine if the price doesn’t come down.

    Seeing the VIX skyrocket as it did a few years ago gave insiders advanced notice of the major stock market crashes long before the general public knew. Way back in the day, I saw the VIX leap above 30 and stay there in the summer of 2007. I dumped my entire retirement portfolio into a money market account in reaction to it. While I made almost no money in the following two years, I managed to completely avoid the market crash, too and saved my retirement from disaster.

    I’d encourage you to not just pay attention to these numbers or tweets, but to also pick your own indicators, your own interpretation of what’s important in the world. You’ll know long before your friends and colleagues what’s going to happen if you study the numbers and learn what they mean.


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